Politics: Fragile ceasefires and emerging power realignments in the Middle East
This is the first of a series of monthly reports that will focus on Israel’s domestic politics, as well as regional politics as they impact Israel.
- Trump’s pressures were key in securing the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza. Despite its continued hope to annihilate Hamas, Israel is likely to maintain the ceasefire under American duress. Hamas meanwhile is incentivized to keep the calm, having survived the war and retained its leadership of Gaza. The organization however might renew hostilities if Arab-Israeli peace overtures should threaten to undermine its authority over the Strip.
- Trump’s inauguration is likely to bring about renewed Palestinian-Israeli peace initiatives under American auspices, and a more hardline stance vis-à-vis Iran and its nuclear program.
- A new effort to reform the selection of Israeli judges as part of the Judicial Revolution is likely to weaken the Israeli judiciary and could potentially spark another wave of anti-government protests.
- The Iranian Axis sustained heavy blows due to the Gaza War and the revolution in Syria; the only Iranian ally still standing are the Houthis, who also intend to respect the ceasefire. Tehran is likely to defend its remaining assets in the Middle East and seek new and possibly surprising allies.
- The election of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is a victory for a relatively neutral and consensual candidate, who is committed to rebuilding the Lebanese state and keeping the ceasefire with Israel; however, his authority and power is limited. Regardless, both Israel and Hizballah appear to be too preoccupied elsewhere to renew their war in the short term.
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