Fragile Stability

UKRAINE - Forecast 30 Jun 2015 by Vladimir Dubrovskiy and Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Summary Ukraine’s economic situation has improved significantly. GDP performance is still horrendous (at -17.2% y/y in Q1); however, the main reason for this development is the loss of the Eastern Donbas. Simultaneously, the economic position of the rest of mainland Ukraine has stabilized. The CAD narrowed to $265 million in the first four months of 2015; officials report that the state budget has seen an impressive surplus of UAH 19.4 billion ($900 million) for the year through May; and the hryvnia has not only calmed down, but has shown signs of strengthening. These data lead us...

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