Politics: Frente Ciudadano por México and Zavala’s Spoiler Potential

MEXICO - Report 23 Oct 2017 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Margarita Zavala’s decision earlier this month to resign from the PAN and run for president as an independent marked a significant setback for the Citizens Front for Mexico (CFM), which has fallen into third place according to most surveys that have been made public.

But we will have to wait to see whether or not current numbers showing her with roughly 12-13% support are a momentary bubble reflecting the immediate shock caused by her decision and the massive coverage it generated in mass media and on social networks. Mounting a viable campaign will prove much more difficult. Independents face a steep uphill battle just to get on the ballot, and even if they clear that hurdle, they will be at an enormous disadvantage to party nominees, who will wield vastly greater amounts of airtime, public campaign funding, and the backing of well established political machines heading up slates of candidates for public office from throughout the country.

It is also to be seen whether Zavala might seriously diminish the proposed coalition’s 2018 electoral prospects over time. Should she manage to keep only a small percentage of PAN supporters from voting for the Citizens Front for Mexico (FCM in Spanish) she could reduce the presidential race to a binary choice between Andrés Manuel López Obrador and the eventual PRI nominee.

The front has problems of its own making as its entire nomination process is only scheduled to get underway in 2018, months after all the other major parties have settled on their own nominees. And to the extent that the front’s chances are fading, it could greatly complicate its candidate selection process down ballot, and possibly lead to defections next spring, especially on the part of politicians who fail to win the FCM candidacies they covet.
Such problems by no means condemn the front to defeat, but they undoubtedly complicate the task. It will have to face an unexpected competitor on its right flank, a less favorable environment for reaching agreements among front-allied parties, and, unless it decides to move up the nomination process now that Zavala is an independent, an adverse calendar.

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