From macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization

ARGENTINA - Report 24 Jun 2024 by Domingo Cavallo

The approval by the Senate of two legislative projects that the government needs to transition from macroeconomic stability to trade and financial liberalization without significant disruptions, the two-year extension of the swap with China for 5 billion dollars, the disbursement by the IMF of 800 million dollars, and the sharp
reduction in the monthly inflation rate in May seem to have calmed the concerns of those anticipating a significant exchange rate adjustment.

The government promises to continue with the same fiscal, exchange rate, and monetary policies at least until the end of the year with one modification: interest rates will begin to be positive in real terms.

The IMF staff, most orthodox professional economists, and bond and stock market operators are starting to doubt the economic team's optimistic projections.

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