Frustration over Economic Activity and the Reaction of Monetary Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 24 Oct 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

Last week a large number of indicators were disclosed strengthening the expectation of further contraction of GDP in the third quarter. If this is confirmed – and the probability is high – Brazilian society will be “rewarded” with the worst recession since CODACE (Committee for Dating Economic Cycles) started dating the country’s economic cycles in 1980. The implications on monetary policy are obvious: with a large negative output gap, disinflationary forces will prevail that should weaken the inertia of service price inflation, allowing the Central Bank to finally carry out an intense cycle of cutting the SELIC rate.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.