Frustration over the GDP Result: Stagnation Should Continue

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Dec 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

Some claim that the GDP growth in the third quarter managed to pull the country out of its “technical recession”. Indeed, a third straight quarter of contraction was avoided, but the tiny “recovery” of 0.1% in the third quarter is far from reason for commemoration. It left a nil carry-over to the rest of 2014, meaning that GDP growth for the year should be 0.2% at best. Impelled mainly by government consumption, total domestic absorption in the third quarter again expanded more than GDP, accentuating the forces working to raise the current account deficit.

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