Politics: Further Evidence of a PAN-Morena Race

MEXICO - Report 12 Apr 2017 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

The polling data regarding the 2018 presidential election points to some clear trends.

The incumbent PRI’s prospects have worsened considerably. Just since our November poll the percentage of those who picked the PRI as their choice in the presidential contest fell seven points to 19%. A year ago it enjoyed a five-point favorable balance of positive/negative opinions, but has now plunged to a negative 31 points. On that same scale it is now in the cellar, tied in single digits with the flailing PRD, which has been the worst rated among major parties for many years. The PRI also appears to have lost any appeal to independents. Thirty-eight percent of voters say they could never cast a ballot for the PRI, four to five times more than say the same about any other party.

And perhaps more troubling for the PRI, its two strongest potential nominees, who have long enjoyed considerable national media exposure, are drawing no better than 13% in the most likely hypothetical candidate fields, as much as seven percentage points below their levels in the previous GEA-ISA survey in late 2016.

The contest is shaping up between Morena’s López Obrador and the eventual PAN nominee, most likely either Margarita Zavala or Ricardo Anaya. Zavala looks a bit more competitive against AMLO in a general election, but Anaya is generally assumed to have the inside track if he should compete for the candidacy.

López Obrador is not picking up many voting intentions from outside the ranks of his party as 15% of the general electorate said they would vote for Morena and 18% for AMLO, a difference that at this point would not appear to come from that party’s main rival on the left (both the PRD and possible nominee Mancera are registering identical 7% support), so presumably the missing 3 points comes from disaffected PRI voters or those who identify with no party.

But the data also confirms a considerable degree of volatility in the opinions of registered voters, making it too soon to venture a hypothesis as to who might emerge victorious next year.

Now read on...

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