Gaza-Israel war: Implications for the GCC

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 09 Oct 2023 by Justin Alexander

* Normalization probably factored into Hamas’s motivations but wasn’t the primary driver.
* Saudi normalization in the near term is now much less likely.
* Qatar may be able to mediate a prisoner exchange, but ceasefire talks don't look imminent.
* GCC-Iran reproachment will stall, not least because a nuclear deal is now very unlikely.
* The risk of attacks on Israelis in the UAE has increased but remains small.
* There will be at least a short-term risk premium on the oil price.

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