GDP and BOP Prints: Initial Reactions

TURKEY - Report 12 Jun 2017 by Murat Ucer

The economy grew at a better-than expected 5% pace in Q1, y/y, compared with the consensus (and our) forecasts of around 3.5%. Our forecast slippage stemmed from stronger growth in both private and public consumption, which were markedly higher than the rates we had factored into our bottom-up approach, and were not evident to us in higher frequency consumption indicators or the budget data. On the much less surprising side, net exports contributed a hefty 2.2 percentage points (pps) to growth by our calculations (thanks to solid export growth versus subdued import growth), while investment growth (private and public combined) was weak, as expected. Notably, there was also significant de-stocking by our calculations, which shaved off some 2.3 pps from overall GDP growth.

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