GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24

RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 14 Jun 2024 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Rosstat reported that the Russian GDP grew by 5.4% y-o-y in 1Q24. The agency published just statistics on the production side. Statistics by end-use will appear later. The published figure appeared generally in line with our forecast as we expected GDP to expand by 4.0% (a bit faster looks also possible). According to Rosstat, in seasonally adjusted terms, the Q-o-Q growth reached 0.99% in 1Q24, i.e., more or less in line with the recently emerged growth trajectory. Growth varied across production sectors but was generally not too bad in many of them. Manufacturing, for instance, grew by 9.0% y-o-y last quarter. Next week, we’ll dig deeper into the published data and provide more color on this issue, particularly inflation and the expected nominal GDP. The country’s nominal GDP exceeded R43.2 trln (up by 9.5% relative to the nominal 1Q23 GDP). Meanwhile, According to today’s report from Rosstat, inflation reached 0.74% m-o-m last month, which moved the y-o-y tally to a quite worrying 8.30%.

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