GDP growth between 1% and 1.5% in 2019

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 18 Apr 2019 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

Analyzing the latest data, along with the recent performance of activity and the perspectives for the coming quarters, we have revised our growth projection for 2019 downward. The interval of our new projection is between 1% and 1.5%, with bias towards the lower limit​.

At the end of 2018 there was hope that the election of a candidate with “supposedly liberal” economic policies would act to impel GDP growth in 2019. Indeed, after the election, there was a significant rise of business confidence (Chart 1). However, this was an elevation led by the future expectations component, without a significant contribution from the current situation component. That upward movement has now reversed, with sentiment starting to decline, and now all the confidence indicators stand below 100 points, which separates the expansion and contraction zones​.

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