GDP growth for Q1 2014 makes many raise their eyebrows

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - In Brief 05 Jun 2014 by Pavel Isa
The Central Bank released figures of GDP growth for Q1 2014. Once again it was a surprise as they registered an expansion of 5.5% in economic activity. It is true that compared to Q1 2013, the worst quarter for economic growth in year, any recovery would be reflected in relatively strong numbers. However, when official numbers are compared to other evidence such as the performance of total imports and the quantity of imports of oil, it makes many raise their eyebrows. For Q1 2014 total imports dropped by 0.3% (compared to Q1 2013). The reduction was mainly caused by a decrease in the quantity of oil imported which brought about a decline by 11.6% in value of oil imported (from USD 1.12 bn to USD 0.99 bn). This represents a break in fairly stable association between economic activity and total imports and imports of oil, and makes many doubt about the accuracy of GDP figures. The Central Bank reported that sectors that led GDP growth in Q1 were mining (35.3%), construction (14.6%), finance (14.6%), tourism (8.9%) and manufacturing (5.9%).

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