GDP growth is expected to decelerate in Q2

HUNGARY - In Brief 13 Aug 2018 by Istvan Racz
Q2 GDP growth is scheduled to be reported in first estimate early tomorrow. Analysts in Portfolio.hu's poll expect 4.2% yoy growth on sda basis, down from 4.7% yoy in Q1 and the 4.9% yoy cyclical peak in Q4 2017. We believe this is largely correct, but we would not be surprised at a somewhat lower (4-4.1% yoy) number.Essentially, there should be two factors behind the expected slowdown: (1) industrial output, which decelerated in Q2 in line with the cooling of the European manufacturing cycle; and (2) construction output, which grew very fast in Q2, yet it still lost momentum compared to the same period of last year, as the stellar growth rates recorded a year ago were simply unsustainable. Consumer demand remained largely the same robust as in Q1, but in the national accounts, that was to a great extent offset by a deteriorating trade balance (in volume terms, of course).

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