GDP in the First Quarter

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Jun 2017 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

After two years of contraction, GDP expanded strongly in the first quarter of 2017, at an annualized rate of 4.3%. But the details of this growth show that the improvement was more apparent than real. First, the result was almost totally due to the performance of agriculture, whose output grew by the largest quarterly rate in the past 20 years. Second, gross fixed capital formation continued to contract substantially. Third, the likelihood is high that figures will show a return to contraction in the second quarter, indicating it’s too soon to commemorate the end of the recession. And, finally, the rising political risks will not help recovery of economic activity.

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