GDP in the Second Quarter: Worse than Expected

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Sep 2014 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti and Marcelo Gazzano

Second-quarter GDP fell by 0.6%. This decline not only exceeded the median of expectations, there also were downward revisions of the seasonally adjusted data for the first quarter of 2014 and third of 2013. Instead of expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter this year, the revised figures show a fall of 0.2%, while the for the third quarter of 2013 the revised economic numbers indicate a decline of 0.6% instead of a fall of 0.3% as was previously estimated. Therefore, GDP has been virtually stationary since the second quarter last year (Graph 1). The carry over to the rest of the year indicates zero growth. Since the first signs for the third quarter are not promising, growth in 2014 will probably be near the lower limit of the interval between 0% and 0.5%.

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