GDP sped up to 3.8% y/y in 2Q 2018, updated statistics

UKRAINE - In Brief 19 Sep 2018 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
State statistics office reported a 3.8% y/y GDP increase in 2Q 2018. Provisional estimate was +3.6% y/y. Thus in 1H 2018 GDP sped up to 3.5% y/y vs. 2.7% y/y in 1H 2017. In 2Q 2018 private consumption and investments in fixed assets slowed but remained strong. In particular, private consumption increased 4.1% y/y vs. 5.5% y/y in the prior quarter. Investments in fixed assets kept on growing in double digits (+14.2% y/y vs. +17.1% y/y in 1Q 2018). The main drivers of GDP strengthening were net exports (negative contribution narrowed down to 1.65 pps vs. 2.34 pps in the prior quarter) and government consumption (+11.2% y/y vs. -1.6% y/y in the prior quarter). The results of second quarter are much stronger than we expected; however, in 2H 2018 we will see substantial expansion of CAD what will increase negative contribution of net exports reflecting accordingly on GDP growth numbers. We still expect GDP increasing 3.2% y/y in 2018.

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