GDP surges 4.5-4.8% in 4Q16, officials say

UKRAINE - In Brief 09 Feb 2017 by Dmytro Boyarchuk
GDP surged 4.5-4.8% y/y in 4Q16 the Head of State Statistics Service Igor Verner reported at the Cabinet meeting yesterday. This means that in 2016 GDP increased 2.2% y/y which is much above our estimates (we projected 1.4% y/y). If the estimate proves to be correct it’s definitely good news. At the same time we understand that the speed up stems only from upsurge in agro-production (+66.4% y/y in December). The point is that this year agro-producers faced deficit of freight railway carriages what made them delay with harvest collection till winter months. We remain skeptical about similar (4-5%) growth rates in 2017. Private consumption is recovering but it used to translate into more demand for imports. At the same time prospects of external demand for Ukraine’s exports are questionable. What’s more, grain harvest used to be extremely volatile from year to year. Thus we still project 2.4% y/y GDP growth for 2017.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this or its contents.