GDP Surprise

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 16 Nov 2017 by Romeo Bernardo
3Q17 GDP raced past analysts’ expectations, growing 6.9% vs. the median 6.5% forecast. Credit goes to net exports which contributed 1.2ppt to GDP growth as export growth (17%) outpaced import growth (14%). In contrast to robust export performance, growth rates of domestic private demand, particularly consumption and investments, continued to slacken. Household spending grew 4.5%, partly reflecting base effects, while investment growth slowed to 6.6%, with private construction exhibiting flattish growth of 0.6%. Public spending continued to grow moderately. Meanwhile, production accounts showed higher contributions from manufacturing and services (particularly trading services), whereas agricultural output growth weakened.The strong 3Q17 performance, together with an upward adjustment in the 2Q17 GDP estimate (from 6.5% to 6.7%), brings average GDP in the first three quarters to 6.7%, a likelier full year outcome than our current 6.5% forecast.

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