Mexico Macro Monitor: General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy for 2026

MEXICO - In Brief 02 Apr 2025 by Mariano Ruiz-Funes
“General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy”: High optimism regarding growth, inflation, and public deficit for 2025; relative pessimism in the oil market. The Mexican Ministry of Finance (SHCP) presented the so-called “General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy (PCGPE in Spanish)”, which include a review of the macroeconomic framework and public finance estimates for 2025, as well as projections for 2026. In addition to fulfilling the legal requirement under the Budget Law, these guidelines serve as the basis for federal government agencies to begin the budget preparation process for the upcoming year. The PCGPE include overly optimistic and unrealistic projections: Economic growth: 1.5% to 2.3%, compared to 0.4% reported in the latest Banxico (Bank of Mexico) survey of economists and a -0.1% contraction estimated by GEA; inflation: 3% (implying compliance with the central bank’s objetive), lower than both the Banxico’s survey and GEA’s projections; fiscal deficit (measured as Public Sector Borrowing Requirements, PSBR): -3.9% to -4.0% of GDP, versus -4.8% estimated by GEA. Chart 1 GENERAL PRE-GUIDELINES FOR ECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK, 2025 For 2026, estimates remain overly optimistic, though slightly more moderate. The fiscal deficit will be a major challenge for next (and this) year. For 2026, the PCGPE (General Pre-Guidelines for Economic Policy) remain optimistic compared to analyst projections, including those from GEA, though the discrepancies are smaller than for 2025. However, the guidelines still reflect an overly bullish outlook on public finances, projecting a wide fiscal deficit (PSBR) of -3.2% to -3.5% of GDP. This would require a sharp spend...

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