Politics: General presidential campaigns de facto underway as FAM campaign struggles to gain traction and MC looks for opening opportunities
According to the electoral authority’s calendar, each party’s campaign to choose its respective presidential candidate got underway November 20. But in the latest example of election law's distantly lagging political reality, those pre-campaigns have been unfolding for many months, with the two major contenders chosen by early September. Two weeks ago, the Citizens’ Movement (MC) party registered its candidate, as well. And while all parties try to maintain the illusion of a patina of respect for an official calendar that states general election campaigning is only allowed beginning March 1, in reality the contest is in full swing.
First out of the gate was Broad Front for Mexico (FAM) candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, who has struggled to gain traction on the campaign trail. Polls show that support for her has held steady since September, but she continues to trail the incumbent party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum by at least 20 points. Prone to gaffs on the campaign trail, she is badly in need of a campaign strategy or set of proposals that outshine those of her main rival, distilling her government program into effective messaging and sound bites. But she is hampered by a team almost entirely devoid of experience organizing election campaigns, at the same time as the leaders of the three FAM parties have tended to jealously withhold their considerable campaign experience and resources from Gálvez, a nominee they do not regard as one of their own.
In contrast, even with all of the internal contradictions of the 4T camp, so far Sheinbaum’s campaign has ridden the momentum of a popular incumbent administration, unity both within Morena and with its minor party allies, and a fully developed campaign organization.
If no adjustments, corrections and definitions are made that refocus Gálvez's campaign, it will be difficult for her to overcome Sheinbaum's lead. In a worst case scenario, such weaknesses could provide an opening for MC candidate Samuel García and his party’s stated goal of displacing the PRI-PAN-PRD as the country’s second largest political force.
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