Geneva talks suspended, Ankara worried

TURKEY - In Brief 04 Feb 2016 by Atilla Yesilada

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After only a few brief indirect meetings with the involved parties, U.N. special envoy Stefan de Mistura threw in the towel, announcing late last night that Syrian peace talks “were temporarily suspended” until 25th of February, which in my view causes great concern to Ankara. While de Mistura was careful not to put the blame on any party, it is clear that the horrendous air bombardment by Russian air force and Assad’s advances in encircling Aleppo broke the will of U.S. and the Western supported allies to continue the talks. And, this is the part that really concerns Turkey rather than whether the talks will be rejoined (in my view they won’t be). While news flow from the war front is sketchy, it appears that the allied rebel forces and perhaps a quarter million civilians in Aleppo under their control have now only one slim lifeline stretching to Idlip Province and then to Turkey, which is under heavy attack. If that thin red line breaks, the long-awaited siege of Aleppo will start. The siege means before it starts more than a hundred thousand refugees could flock to Turkish border compounding the economic and social burden of hosting them. Moreover, with –then- over 2.5 million angry and destitute Syrians inside her border, it would be even more difficult for Turkey to keep her promise to EU to keep them at home and away from the Union’s borders, potentially causing a break-down of the refugees-for-chapters deal. (By the way, the EU Commission approved Euro3 billion refugee aid to Turkey today, keeping its side of the promise). I can’t tell you whether Aleppo would fall, because while Russian air power is terribly effective, Assad’s ground forces and the assorted Shi...