Global trade dynamics seen through a US-Mexico lens

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 21 Feb 2017 by Michael Pettis

​Special points to highlight in this issue:

January credit data suggest that economic activity in China is still heavily dependent on credit growth. The data reinforce the argument that as long as Beijing expects to maintain its GDP growth target, the growth in credit will continue to accelerate.

Most analyses of global trade implicitly assume that trade and current account imbalances drive the capital account. In fact the opposite is more likely to be true, in which case any analysis of net trade flows must begin with the factors that drive capital flows.

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