Good-bye Sweden, hello Greece, please EU, please

TURKEY - In Brief 11 Dec 2023 by Atilla Yesilada

---

I’m writing this Market Brief at 13:00 Istanbul time on Monday. The time stamp is very important, because the shelf-life on the product is probably no more than 24 hours. Alas, Dear Reader, while Erdogan displays uncharacteristic resolve in orthodox economic policy, his foreign policy is all over the place. As it stands, his partner Bahceli indefinitely filibustered Swedish accession. Relations with Greece are certain to improve “optically”, but it is not clear whether the honeymoon will result in offsprings. As my friend Murat Ucer is fond of saying “for a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. For me, economic prosperity and in fact the prospect of any democratic reform, as symbolic as it might be ,lies at the doorstep of EU leaders. Thus, I’ll connect Sweden and Greek developments to EU relations. Last week, MHP chairman Bahceli shut the door to Swedish membership in these words: “Of course, we are cold towards Sweden’s entry into NATO. For us, insulting our Holy Book is the same as oppressing Muslims. If a permanent peace environment is established between Israel and Palestine, if an independent Palestinian state with territorial integrity is recognized within the 1967 borders, if Israel agrees to pay compensation and if the way for Netanyahu to be tried in The Hague is cleared, we say yes to Sweden’s NATO membership”. (link here) Taken literally, his stance means Turkey will never ratify the Swedish membership. Is Bahceli bluffing? Perhaps. Several scenarios come to mind: He is playing the bad cop to Erdogan’s good cop to extract more concessions from US and EU. His problem is not with Sweden, but with Erdogan. It is no secret that Erdogan wants to end the partner...