Politics: Governability risks on multiple fronts
With Claudia Sheinbaum in office less than three weeks, analysts, as well as political, economic, and social actors, are raising questions on the challenges the new government faces in terms of guaranteeing governability. In this week’s edition of the Political Outlook we highlight 28 risks in three broad areas: government, society, and democracy.
The starting point for the analysis is the general negative balance sheet of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government. This is not only because Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration will inherit the results of AMLO’s policies, but also because she is committed to continuing in his footsteps.
Ten risks have been initially identified that would reduce the ability of Sheinbaum's government to be effective in solving the country's four main strategic issues: economic growth, the relationship with the United States and the USMCA, public security, and poverty. Beyond their political impact, these risks would also undermine business confidence inside and outside the country, as the rule of law and legal certainty for markets would be called into question. The likelihood of strong and sustained economic growth above the historical 2% annual average would be drastically reduced, putting the country’s financial sustainability at risk.
Major alarm bells are being sounded over the fate awaiting democratic institutions, given the concentration of power in the executive branch at the expense of the separation of powers. An open battle is currently centering on the Judicial Reform, which threatens the courts’ independence and autonomy. Furthermore, if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential elections, the heightened risk of a crisis in the relationship with the United States could have very negative consequences in the economic, commercial, and security areas.
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