​Growth 2020: A Pyrrhic Victory of sorts

TURKEY - Report 01 Mar 2021 by Murat Ucer

The Turkish economy grew by a somewhat lower than expected 5.9%, y/y, and 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of 2020. For the year as a whole, GDP hence grew by 1.8% in 2020, making Turkey one of the two G-20 countries, next to China, that registered positive growth in a devastating, pandemic-hit year.

Then again, as most sensible people know and agree by now, this has come at the great expense of heightened vulnerabilities, most notably, shifting to a higher inflation plateau, markedly lower reserve levels on the back of a current account deficit that was driven by stock build-up and almost fully financed from reserves; and some $60 billion hole in the CBRT balance sheet, in terms of its short F/X position, which will take years to fix.

Now read on...

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