Growth Outlook Wan, as Government Hunts for Finance

ECUADOR - Forecast 20 Apr 2015 by Magdalena Barreiro
Executive Summary The dramatic fall in oil prices has forced the government to cut $1.4 billion from its 2015 budget – so we expect growth to plunge year, though it should recover somewhat if certain hydroelectric projects begin operating by mid-2016.We project 2015 growth at less than 1%, if oil prices average $43 to $45 per barrel. GDP growth in 2014 was 3.8% y/y, down from 4.6% in 2013. So we’ve left the strong performances of 2012 (5.2%) and 2011 (7.9%) behind. Household consumption made the greatest contribution to y/y GDP growth in 2014, at 2.41%. Exports were next, at 1.66%, followed...

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