Growth performance updates for 2024. Has inflation been slowing down? A harsh review from the OECD.

POLAND - In Brief 05 Feb 2025 by Jan Hagemejer

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(Some) data for 2024 are available Statistics Poland has recently produced a flash estimate of GDP and some of the GDP components for the whole year. This clears some of the uncertainty about the behavior of significant growth drivers. In particular, one can see that while we do not have complete information about all of the components (and we do not have the data for 4Q2024; the 3.1% overall growth is an estimate), we can see that private consumption has surprised the market analysts with higher-than-expected growth of 3.1% y-o-y. As the contributions of the revealed components sum up to more than the GDP growth rate, either the contribution of net exports to the overall growth was negative, and/or there was again an adjustment of inventories, which in the previous year had a sizeable negative contribution to growth. With the official GUS release, this mystery will finally be resolved on February 27th, 2025. We might also see a revision of the presented data, as those have been substantial in the past. Graph 1 GDP growth and its components Source: Statistic Poland, own estimate of Q42024 Looking at monthly releases that were published in January, covering the December data, output in manufacturing, which earlier in the year showed a bit of monthly growth (after seasonal adjustment and eliminating calendar effects), has not continued that trend in December with an average output increase in 2024 at around 0.2% y/y. It has to be noted that 2024 was the third year in a row with virtually no growth in manufacturing, and the level of output hovers around the 2021 numbers. Of the subsectors of manufacturing, the output of electrical equipment experienced a fall of real outp...