Growth reportedly soared in February – economic surprise or statistical puzzle?

KAZAKHSTAN - In Brief 14 Mar 2025 by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

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The Bureau of National Statistics reported in February that the short-term indicator (that captures activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation/warehousing, communications, and trade) soared as in 2M25, it grew by 7.3% y-o-y. In January, it was up by 4.5 y-o-y, followed by a sudden acceleration to 10.3% y-o-y in February. It looked equally puzzling given that in December 2024, it reportedly grew by 11.2% y-o-y and then decelerated sharply in January this year (and the December high y-o-y growth figure looked equally surprising as in 1H24 it was up by a mere 3.9% y-o-y). The Bureau reported that in 2M25, transportation and warehousing was the fastest-growing segment, as it delivered 21.3% y-o-y growth. Construction grew strongly also (12.8% y-o-y over the same period), but not as much as transportation/storage activity. Trade (wholesale and retail) was up in 2M25 by 6.0% y-o-y. Growth in industry accelerated (up by 5.7% y-o-y in 2M25), but the Bureau has not yet published statistics on the mining and manufacturing segments separately. Agriculture grew by 3.2%, and communications segments delivered zero y-o-y growth in 2M25. Such diversity and sharp changes in growth rates across segments look puzzling, as an economic interpretation of these sharp swings is not easy. For example, the Bureau of National Statistics reported that the transportation segment (net of warehousing) delivered strong growth in the cargo segment (up by 17.0% y-o-y in February) while the passenger transportation grew even faster (by 19.7% y-o-y in February). In the former case, a relatively fast y-o-y growth did not look too surprising as it was strongly negative in early 2024. I...