Growth: Resilient, But Still Unbalanced

TURKEY - Report 10 Dec 2013 by Murat Ucer
Turkish GDP expanded by 4.4% in Q3, y/y, as in the previous quarter, which was better than the consensus as well as our even softer forecast of some 3.5%. The working day and seasonally-adjusted growth was 0.9%, q/q; the latter is now running at a 4-quarter rolling 1.1%, or an annualized rate of 4.5% (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). There is little doubt that growth has proven much more resilient than we would have thought a few months ago. The composition also appears to have improved over Q2, with, for instance, government contributing much less to growth in this quarter (Graph 3). The bad news is ...

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