Growth: Slowing and Still Very Low Quality

TURKEY - Report 09 Sep 2016 by Murat Ucer

TURKSTAT released the National Income Accounts data for the second quarter of 2016 today. GDP grew by 3.1%, y/y, and slightly lower (3%) in working day-adjusted terms, which was broadly in line with our (somewhat lower than consensus) forecast. The first quarter growth was revised down slightly to 4.7% from 4.8%. On a seasonally- and working day-adjusted basis, Turkish economy grew by 0.3%, q/q, after growing by 0.7% and 1.1% (both revised) in the first quarter of 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2015, respectively. The 4-quarter rolling average quarterly growth hence dropped to 0.8% from 1.1% in the previous quarter. Both figures – y/y as well as q/q -- point to a fairly visible momentum loss in economic activity (Graphs 1-2).

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