Growth slows on weak PC demand

ISRAEL - In Brief 16 May 2023 by Jonathan Katz

GDP growth slows in Q1 Headline GDP growth slowed to 2.5% saar in the 1st quarter of 2023, following growth of 5.3% in Q422. Private consumption declined by 1.7% mostly due to a shift in new vehicle purchases to Q422 before higher taxation came into effect. Excluding new vehicles, private consumption expanded by a mere 0.3%. Investments expanded by 14.7%, high service exports by 9% (although manufacturing exports declined by 7%) and government consumption increased by 1.8%. Total Imports declined more sharply than exports (-5.8% compared to -3.5%). A sharp decline in inventories shaved off 2.3% from GDP growth in Q123. Economic growth appears to be slowing from rapid expansion in 2022 (6.5%), with private consumption moderating due to monetary tightening and wage erosion. We expect growth to reach 2.5% this year. This deceleration is to be expected with the output gap basically at zero and global demand weakening. We still expect a 0.25% rate hike on May 22nd due to the spike in inflation in May, but do not envision further tightening.

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