Growth: Stocks Save the Headline in Q4

TURKEY - Report 31 Mar 2015 by Murat Ucer
GDP growth came in at 2.6%, y/y, in Q4, somewhat better than both the consensus forecast and our expectation, but the forecast slippage -- as far as ours is concerned -- largely stems from stock build-up.As expected, growth momentum otherwise remains weak. The demand composition was exactly as we had expected, i.e. GDP growth was driven chiefly by private consumption and inventory build-up in the quarter, but the magnitude of especially the latter – which made a rather significant 1.4 pps contribution to Q4 growth – was larger than our estimate (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). By definition, that is,...

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