Growth Surging, CAD Tanking: So Are We Transformed?

TURKEY - Report 10 Dec 2015 by Murat Ucer

Today’s GDP data (Q3) surprised on the upside, coming in at an impressive 4%, y/y, much stronger than the market forecasts of about 2.5%, and our slightly higher forecast. Growth was also strong relative to the previous quarter (seasonally- and working day-adjusted), registering a 1.3% expansion, corresponding to over 5% growth, annualized (Table 1; Graphs 1-2).

The details suggest this growth was flimsy, however, on both the production and expenditure sides. On the production side, industry growth was mediocre (1.4%). Growth came from a very sharp rebound in agricultural production (of over 11%, y/y, making some 1.6 pp. contribution to GDP growth) and continued resilience in the service sector, which grew by 5% (Graph 3), but was not a particularly broad-based expansion (e.g., an important category like wholesale and retail trade remained weak, while some specific administrative categories registered double digit growth rates).

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