​Growth surprises somewhat on the downside

TURKEY - Report 02 Dec 2019 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The Turkish economy grew by 0.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of 2019, broadly in line with expectations, but sequential growth, which is a lot more important to monitor nowadays (given the strong base effects from last year) was somewhat weaker than envisaged, with GDP expanding by 0.4% over the previous quarter (Graph 1). The latter points to a momentum loss of sorts, even after accounting for the so-called bridge-day effect, which, according to CBRT estimates, is supposed to have lowered Q3 GDP growth by around 0.4 pp. (There were some revisions to back data, but they were inconsequential, so we won’t bother you with those.)

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