GUATEMALA: Moderate Growth

CENTRAL AMERICA - Report 28 Feb 2014 by Francisco de Paula Gutierrez
Executive SummaryThe outlook for the Guatemalan economy 2014-2015 is similar to that of 2013. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.5%-4.0%; inflation will be within the 4% ± 1 p.p. of the Central Bank’s target range; and the exchange rate will stay at 7.90-8.10 quetzals per dollar. Interest rates will reflect the upward trend expected in external rates; and the current account deficit, at about 2.7%-3.0% of GDP, will be fully financed by FDI and public sector indebtedness, so that NIR will increase moderately. The fiscal deficit will be about 2.2%-2.4% of nominal GDP, and public sector debt wi...

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