Politics: Gubernatorial results to set the stage for presidential nominations and battles to come

MEXICO - Report 05 Jun 2023 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

On June 4 gubernatorial elections in the State of Mexico and Coahuila were held. Both states are currently governed by the PRI but as was expected by the polls, that party will only retain Coahuila. In the State of Mexico it was defeated with a 10-point difference by the Morena candidate, Delfina Gomez, who got 54.3% of the vote according to definitive results. In contrast, the PRI candidate won Coahuila with 57% of the vote, and Morena only got a 21% share.

This gubernatorial contests are instructive for next year's presidential race. That is especially true of the State of Mexico as the Morena coalition will assume control of the country’s most populous and second wealthiest state, one that has played an outsized role in national politics for many decades.

For the PRI, losing the governor’s mansion in Toluca for the first time in almost a century implies it will be reduced to governing only Durango and neighboring Coahuila, where missteps by Morena paved the way for the PRI to snatch victory from what at the beginning of the year looked likely to be jaws of defeat, potentially diminishing its leverage in the opposition coalition nationally. It would also strengthen Morena’s hand heading into 2024, making it the incumbent party in 21 out of 32 states, plus two others governed by allied parties.

In the State of Mexico campaign there was a deployment of substantial public resources to develop a mighty campaign machine which, combined with President López Obrador's resources, explain part of the victory. But another fundamental variable that explains the defeat of the PRI-PAN-PRD coalition in the State of Mexico is the inability of the opposition parties to turn out not only their core voters but also independents dissatisfied with Morena and López Obrador's administration, voters who remain so disillusioned with those three parties they decided to sit out the election rather than try to prevent a Delfina Gómez governorship.

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