Gulf rift resolution expected tomorrow

GULF COUNTRIES - In Brief 04 Jan 2021 by Justin Alexander

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Kuwait's foreign minister has just announced (6.51pm GMT / 1.51pm EST) that Saudi Arabia will reopen its land and air borders to Qatar this evening, the day before it hosts the GCC Summit (Kuna-Arabic). We had heard reports a few hours earlier that officials at the border had been instructed to prepare for a potential reopening. This announcement came shortly after a Reuters report, citing a US official saying that a broader breakthrough had been agreed that will see all four Quartet members (Saudi, UAE, Bahrain and Egypt) end their blockades of Qatar and, in return, Qatar will drop lawsuits. Back on 30 Nov we outlined Qatar's string of victories in various international forums, with more expected this year that could have enforcement mechanisms. These victories, along with the realignments resulting from the incoming Biden Administration, are the driving force behind moves to reconciliation after many false dawns. We were initially skeptical about Jared Kushner's visit, but there has been an increased sense of momentum in recent weeks and the Reuters story says that Kushner is flying to Saudi Arabia to be present at the signing of a deal.However, Kuwait's announcement about the Saudi easing is more limited that the Reuters story. Neither Oman's Sultan nor Bahrain's King are attending the GCC summit, deputising their deputy prime minister and prime minister, respectively, which might be surprising if a breakthrough is really expected. We still haven't heard any comment from officials from the UAE, which has been the most resolutely opposed to Qatar since the blockade was launched in 2017. There is therefore still a chance that only a limited deal might result, involvin...