Gulf states will bear almost all the OPEC+ cut in November, reducing their output by -5%

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 Oct 2022 by Justin Alexander

• The true cut will be less than half the stated 2m, given underproduction by most OPEC+ members.
• Still, this will push the oil market into a deficit of about -1m b/d in Q4, according to OPEC's most recent published forecasts.
• The Gulf states will cut by -5% m/m but this could be offset by higher prices.
• The OPEC+ partnership will continue for another year, providing a backstop for oil if there is a global recession.
• The US is frustrated and will face more impetus to act on both the NOPEC bill and the JCPOA.

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