GULF WEEKLY: All mirror Fed cuts, Saudi revises inflation basket, Kuwait's population declines
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Gulf central banks all mirrored the US’s -25bp interest rate cut.
* The IEA warned that annual field decline is higher than previously estimated, about -5.5m b/d.
* Saudi Arabia revised its inflation basket, lifting the weights of food and transport but reducing rents.
* Saudi riyal sukuk were placed on positive watch for inclusion in the JPM GBI-EM index.
* S&P revised down its expected Saudi deficit to -4.3% of GDP this year, easing to -3.5% by 2028.
* Saudi Arabia signed a defense pact with Pakistan, which may include nuclear deterrence.
* Adnoc has abandoned its takeover bid for Australian LNG firm Santos over pricing and tax.
* ADIA’s assets delivered 6% return in 2024 and rose to an estimated $1.1trn.
* The UAE launched the Future Investment and Trade Partnership with 13 other open economies.
* There was movement towards IPOs for Dubai construction firm ALEC and Emirates Global Aluminum.
* Sharjah’s inward FDI nearly quadrupled to $1.5bn in H1.
* In the aftermath of the Israeli strike, Qatar hosted 57 Islamic countries and (separately) Rubio.
* Kuwait’s population fell by -0.7% in 2024 as migrants departed and Kuwaitis were denaturalized.
* Fitch’s latest Kuwait analysis anticipates more local than foreign debt issuance in the next 3 years.
* Oman India Fertiliser Company, jointly owned by OQ and Indian co-ops, is considering an IPO.
* The US vetoed another Gaza ceasefire resolution as the UN determined a genocide is underway.
* Databank updates: Saudi inflation; forecasts for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and UAE.
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