GULF WEEKLY: Aramco issues bonds, Oman records Q1 deficit, Fitch expects mild Dubai property correction

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 30 May 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil dipped to $62 amidst reports that OPEC+ could boost July output by more than 0.4m b/d.
* Trump said Iran talks are going well and warned Israel not to strike. There could be an interim deal.
* Saudi Arabia conducted a maturity extension to an average of 10 years for $16bn of local sukuk.
* Aramco issued $5bn in bonds in 5 to 30-year tranches with an average maturity of 17 years.
* Fitch expects a correction in Dubai property prices over the next year, but by no more than -15%.
* There are major differences in forecasts for RAK’s GDP and fiscal balance between S&P and Fitch.
* A Turkish hotel firm, Rixos, is planning a $3bn investment in Qatar’s Simaisma tourism development.
* Kuwait authorized the central bank and KIA to issue debt. S&P now expects $10bn in 2025.
* Oman Q1 deficit of -1.4% of GDP was a result of lower oil prices and higher capex.
* Oman’s borrowing plan targets about $4.5bn in international issuance this year.
* Oman is teaming up with DP World to develop a special economic zone on the UAE border.
* Bahrain’s GDP shows government consumption down -2.4% in 2024, after 7.3% growth in 2023.
* Fitch upgraded Bahrain’s Bank ABC to BBB- due to improved exposures and performance.
* Israel announced a massive expansion of West Bank settlements to block Palestinian statehood.
* European countries, including Germany, stepped up criticism on this and the Gaza war.
* A Qatari-led consortium signed a deal to build 5GW of power in Syria after the US lifted sanctions.
* Databank updates: Oman fiscal; Bahrain GDP; forecasts for Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and RAK.

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