GULF WEEKLY: Aramco’s $10bn performance dividend, China joins Ukraine talks in Jeddah, Dubai GDP up 2.8% in Q1

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 11 Aug 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil touched $88 on signs of a 2m b/d supply gap in Q3.
* A US-Iranian prisoner exchange deal mediated by Qatar seems to be moving forward.
* Aramco brought forward its $10bn quarterly performance dividend, which could balance the budget.
* PIF suffered $16bn in losses in 2022, largely due to Softbank, but grew assets in its gigaprojects.
* Saudi miner Ma’aden secured BBB+ ratings ahead of a potential issuance.
* The Ukraine peace consultations in Jeddah, which included China, were deemed a success.
* Speculation heated up about Saudi-Israel normalization, but US officials downplayed progress.
* Dubai’s GDP didn’t quite hit 2019 levels last year but may have in Q1-23, when it grew by 2.8% y/y.
* Qatar’s real estate sector showed signs of weakness in Q2, with declines in rents and prices.
* QIA bought a 2.7% stake in India’s Adani Green Energy.
* Tourist arrivals were strong in June, with Dubai back to its 2019 level and Oman a third higher.
* Prisoners in Bahrain’s al-Jaw prison began a major hunger strike.
* Lebanon experienced a wave of unrelated violent incidents but urged Gulf tourists to remain.
* Databank updates: Saudi fiscal, Dubai GDP, monthly PMI and tourism.

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