GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain and Saudi deficits recorded, Kuwait’s Assembly is dissolved, Egypt plans for Rafah refugees

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 16 Feb 2024 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* The new OPEC+ quotas were implemented in Jan (UAE +1% m/m, Saudi flat, Kuwait & Oman -5%).
* Egypt is building a compound for refugees as Israel prepares for an assault on Rafah, despite US concerns and mediation efforts; this week it killed around 800 and rescued 2 hostages.
* Gulf states declined in a global economic diversification index but rose in an entrepreneurship index.
* The Saudi 2023 deficit was -2% of GDP, with revenue 7% above budget but spending 16% higher.
* Saudi Arabia issued $2.3bn in local sukuk, including the first retail issuance.
* Sam Altman spoke at a Dubai summit, amidst rumors he is seeking UAE funding for AI chips.
* India’s PM visited the UAE and Qatar, which released 8 Indians convicted of spying for Israel.
* Kuwait’s Q3 GDP showed a return to non-oil growth, at 2.8% y/y, though this still lags Gulf peers.
* Kuwait’s Amir dissolved parliament after it refused to strike an MP’s critical comments from its official record.
* Oman is issuing its first debt in nearly a year, a $260m 3yr domestic development bond.
* Bahrain’s deficit rose to -5% of GDP in 2023 as expenditure rose 7.4%, including interest by 15%.
* Kuwait’s Amir visited Bahrain, his third regional visit in the last month, undergirding bilateral support.
* Databank updates: Saudi & Bahrain fiscal, Kuwait GDP, Saudi inflation, Jan oil data.

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