GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain-Qatar handshake in UAE, Sharjah’s 2030 fiscal plan, Kuwaiti pardon may ease deadlock

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 20 Jan 2023 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil rose for a second week on expectations of Chinese demand growth.
* The UAE hosted an Arab leaders summit, featuring a Qatar-Bahrain handshake but no Saudi Arabia.
* Inflation rose in Qatar (the highest, at 5.9%), Dubai and Saudi, but was flat in Kuwait and eased in Oman (the lowest, at 1.9%).
* The Saudi finance minister said financial support to regional allies will be conditional on reforms.
* The Saudi foreign minister and the UN special envoy both indicated progress in Yemen talks.
* Sharjah’s deficit eased to -6% of GDP in 2022 and it projects a narrowing to -2.5% by 2030.
* The UAE is discussing settling non-oil trade with India in rupees.
* Masdar announced renewable deals in five countries and is planning a green bond.
* A former MEP did a deal with prosecutors to tell all about the “Qatargate” EU bribery scandal.
* Fitch expects Kuwait to return to a deficit and issue about $17bn over the next two fiscal years.
* Kuwait issued a pardon for political speech crimes, which was welcomed by opposition MPs.
* This may ease the political deadlock over a proposed law to buy citizens’ consumer loans.
* Oman signed two more LNG supply agreements and began gas production at Mabrouk North East.
* Fitch widened its forecast for Bahrain’s general deficit in 2024 to -5.6% of GDP on oil at $65.
* Databank updates: Sharjah fiscal outturn and outlook, inflation for most, Kuwait & Bahrain forecasts, Dec oil.

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