GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s fiscal deficit eased in 2021, Bahrain’s record Q2 current surplus, violence in Iraq & Libya threatens oil output
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Oil slipped on recession fears, despite potential production concerns, and an OPEC+ cut is not expected.
* OPEC+ sharply revised its forecasts and now sees a 300k b/d supply deficit in 2023, particularly in Q4.
* There were mixed signals on progress towards an Iran nuclear deal but next week could be decision time.
* Iraq and Libya both saw the worst political violence in years, which could threaten oil production.
* GCC support includes $28bn in deposits in Egypt and $12bn in loans and investment pledges to Pakistan.
* The new PIF-owned airline is reportedly due to launch in Q4 and be named RIA.
* Qatar’s population hit a new record of 2.94m in August, up 3% from May (before the holidays).
* Qatar’s non-resident deposits, a concern for rating agencies, declined for a 7th month to -26% below the peak.
* Qatar will build the world’s largest blue ammonia plant, with an output of 1.2m t/yr by 2026.
* Candidate registrations are underway for Kuwait’s elections, with a raft of opposition figures signing up to run.
* Bahrain released its 2021 fiscal outturn showing a deficit of -6.5% of GDP, half the level in 2020.
* Bahrain’s performance was due to a 45% increase in hydrocarbon revenue and a 5% cut in expenditure.
* Bahrain was the first to release Q2 BoP data,which showed a record current account surplus of 18% of GDP.
* Databank update: Bahrain 2021 fiscal and Q2 BoP; Qatar population.
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