GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain’s PM dies, oil caught between vaccine & lockdowns, Saudi on negative outlook
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include:
* Oil rallied on vaccine news before concerns about current lockdowns reasserted themselves.
* Saudi Arabia took a day longer than the other Gulf States to congratulate Biden.
* Trump applied more Iran sanctions, complicating Biden’s options, and some fear military action.
* Saudi’s first flash GDP reading showed a 5% q/q rebound in non-oil GDP (from -13% q/q in Q2).
* Fitch put Saudi Arabia on negative outlook on a weakening in fiscal and external assets.
* Fitch rated UAE at AA-, the first to put it a notch below Abu Dhabi.
* Major liberal reforms are planned for UAE personal and family law.
* Oman is planning to issue around $3bn in bonds through oil firm PDO.
* Bahrain’s Crown Prince Salman became prime minister after the death of his great-uncle Khalifa.
* There are hopes that the change could result in a political easing towards the Shia community.
* Libyan peace talks agreed on a roadmap towards elections, which will support oil production.
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