GULF WEEKLY: Biden focuses on Yemen, Kuwait on negative outlook, BP sells Oman gas stake

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 05 Feb 2021 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include:

* Restrictions expanded across the region in response to the current Covid wave.
* Oil has risen to $59, the most in nearly a year, supported by the voluntary Saudi cuts.
* Biden’s foreign policy speech underlined an end to support of Saudi operations in Yemen, and he appointed Tim Lenderking as Yemen envoy to help end the war.
* Iran and the US signaled openness to choreograph JCPOA compliance sequencing.
* The Saudi and UAE PMI’s held at the highest in over a year in January, and Qatar’s rose strongly.
* PIF has upped its syndicated-loan-raising goal to $15bn, given its large investment commitments.
* The UAE will offer citizenship to some investors and professionals, although probably not many.
* Fitch put Kuwait on negative outlook, given the debt law delay, but retained the AA rating.
* A few more months of cash have been found by selling assets to the Future Generations Fund.
* BP is selling a 20% stake in the Block 61 gasfield in Oman to a Thai firm for $2.6bn.

Cross-cutting themes
Coronavirus
Dubai has closed bars for a month, although it still remains more open than its peers; a growing number of countries are halting UAE flights amidst fears that it had become a superspreader hub for new variants). There was rare internal dissent with Nasser al-Shaikh, Dubai’s former finance chief, questioning the official response to the surge on Twitter.

Oil
Brent crude rose above $59, the most in nearly a year and in line with five-year average before the Covid crisis, supported by Saudi Arabia’s additional 1m b/d cuts that came into effect this week. This comes despite indications of weakening oil demand from leading indicators such as flight numbers and traffic congestion.

Biden/Iran
A series of developments over the last week point to a path towards a relatively quick return to the JCPOA, including a lifting of sanctions, something that oil price forecasts do not seem to be properly accounting for.

Now read on...

Register to sample a report

Register
Sign-in
Forgot your password?
Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved. This report is prepared for GlobalSource Partners’ clients and may not be redistributed, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of GlobalSource Partners. This report is distributed simultaneously to our website and other portals used by GlobalSource Partners. The information herein was obtained from various sources and is believed to be reliable but GlobalSource Partners does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Neither GlobalSource Partners nor any Country Analyst, officer or employee accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses rising from any use of this report or its contents.