GULF WEEKLY: Biden-MBS bump fists, Sharjah junked, Oman’s Q1 GDP looks weak
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:
* Oil rose this week despite Biden’s Saudi visit and a restart in some Libyan facilities.
* Gulf bond issuance was down -80% y/y in H1, and loans were down by -31%.
* MBS was likely pleased with the optics of Biden’s visit, despite the controversy over Khashoggi.
* The IMF is trying to firm up Saudi commitment to finance Pakistan before disbursing more loans.
* Moody’s downgraded Sharjah to junk (Ba1) due to the lack of a credible fiscal adjustment plan.
* Dubai’s inflation jumped to 5.8% in June—driven by fuel, flights and food—and UAE federal inflation was 3.4% in Q1.
* Grocery chain Union Coop was the latest IPO to trade down in its first week.
* The UAE jailed a US lawyer linked to Khashoggi who was transiting through Dubai.
* S&P revised Kuwait’s rating back to stable given the supportive oil environment.
* There is confusion about who will be Kuwait’s prime minister, with a reformist economist reportedly favored.
* Oman published quarterly real GDP for the first time, showing a -0.9% non-oil decline due to weak construction.
* Oman is considering issuing a dollar sukuk and local Islamic money market instruments.
* Bahrain has lifted its Qatar travel ban after the King and Emir met in Jeddah.
* The UN is working toward a 6-month extension of Yemen’s ceasefire, which expires in August.
* Databank updates: Oman GDP; inflation for Saudi, Dubai and Oman; Sharjah and Kuwait forecasts.
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