Gulf weekly: Coronavirus spreads in the Gulf, hardliners win in Iran, Lebanon downgraded

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 28 Feb 2020 by Rory Fyfe and Justin Alexander

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, links to further information and the outlook. Headlines include:

* Coronavirus is out of control in Iran and has spread to four Gulf states so far.
* Many flights have been cancelled, and Saudi is suspending pilgrimages.
* Oil has fallen to nearly a three-year low, and OPEC action is expected next week.
* Saudi appointed an investment minister to try and boost weak FDI.
* Aramco’s Jafurah shale gas project, the largest outside the US, was approved.
* The UAE central bank estimated non-oil growth picked up in Q4 (we’re sceptical).
* Sultan Haitham’s first speech made hopeful signals about fiscal reform.
* Hardliners won big in Iran’s election because of low turnout.
* Moody’s & S&P downgraded Lebanon, and Hezbollah spurned the IMF.
* Tunisia’s parliament approved a new government but Iraq’s failed to do so.

Now read on...

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