GULF WEEKLY: Covid wave peaks, Tecom declines after IPO, Kuwait-Bahrain bank merger

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 08 Jul 2022 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Oil fell on recession concerns, briefly dipping below $100, despite growing turbulence in Libya.
* The Covid wave may have peaked in early July, particularly in KSA, where daily cases have halved.
* Saudi’s PMI rose to 57.0, Qatar’s held at a record 67.5 but the UAE’s dipped to 54.8.
* Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain allocated extra financial support to citizens in response to inflation.
* Although Aramco insists it has 1.2m b/d in spare capacity, some expert estimates put it at 0.2-0.7m.
* Tecom shares fell -13% in their first week trading but another Dubai state-owned firm, Empower, appointed advisors for its IPO. However, in KSA, Al Othaim cancelled an IPO due to weak markets.
* The US sanctioned Emirati firms for helping export Iranian oil, and the UAE has become Iran’s main source of imports.
* Shell joined Qatar’s North Field East LNG project, bringing the total foreign equity share to 25%.
* Qatar’s Q1 non-oil GDP was 2.6% above 2019, led by finance and real estate.
* Qatar’s Q1 current surplus was 18.9% of GDP but the q/q growth in hydrocarbon exports was surprisingly modest.
* Kuwait Finance House finalized a $12bn deal to buy Bahrain’s Ahli United Bank.
* Oman is making early repayment of a $1.3bn loan as part of its debt-reduction strategy.
* Oman’s final account for 2021 shows higher non-oil revenue and civil ministry spending than preliminary data.
* The head of Tunisia’s constitutional drafting committee warned it could enable dictatorship.
* Databank updates: Qatar Q1 GDP & BoP; Oman fiscal; PMIs and tourism.

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