GULF WEEKLY: Fitch negative outlook on Bahrain, Saudi issues bonds, Gaza's ceasefire deadline looms

GULF COUNTRIES - Report 28 Feb 2025 by Justin Alexander

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines:

* Brent oil dipped to $72, the lowest this year, on weak economic data.
* The US imposed new sanctions on Iran’s exports and ended a waiver for Chevron in Venezuela.
* Moody’s added a positive outlook for Oman’s banking but removed those for UAE and KSA.
* Saudi Arabia issued €2.25bn in 7-12-year bonds, including a green tranche.
* SABIC’s earnings disappointed, with a loss in Q4 trimming full-year profits.
* Alat bought a 15% stake in TK Elevator, perhaps worth around $3bn.
* Moody’s put Masdar on review for upgrade, given a reassessment of government support.
* ADGM more than tripled AUM as the number of registered asset managers rose to 134 in 2024.
* Adnoc signed another LNG supply agreement, this time with Osaka Gas of Japan.
* However, QatarEnergy is facing pushback on pricing and terms from potential buyers of its LNG.
* The IMF Article IV report for Qatar included an interesting nowcast GDP model.
* Australia approved Qatar Airways’ purchase of a 25% stake in Virgin Australia.
* Fitch placed Bahrain on a Negative Outlook and sees debt rising to 136% of GDP by 2026.
* Lebanon’s government firmly won a vote of approval, including support from Hezbollah.
* Israel is seeking to drag out Gaza’s first phase ceasefire rather than move to a permanent one.
* Syria held its National Dialogue event; Israel demanded demilitarization of southern Syria.
* Databank updates: Qatar and Bahrain forecasts; Dubai inflation

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